* CI 週五大跌, 主要是受美股前夜暴跌拖累, 但是和其他国家比较, 跌幅(1.45%)算是轻微. 成交量则暴增超越近几个月水平, K綫型态为锤子, 跌势受支撑, 显示多人抛售同时也有人趁低吸纳. 近期走势和2007年7~8月相似: 有多次跳空低开, 当指数去到最低时, 成交量则上扬.
* DJ 週四暴跌超过500点, 是自金融危机以来最大跌幅, 主要是投资者对未来经济展望不乐观. 虽然提高债务上限避免违约, 但是只能短暂得到缓解, 就有如希腊一年前得到援助至今尚未改变其严峻的债务状况, 是一长期问题. 再者, 提高上限协议的附带条件: 未来10年必须削减联邦开支超过2.4万亿美元, 将会限制政府的支出, 对经济成长有一定的影响.
* 二次衰退的可能性不大, 主要是面对的问题不一样: 2年前的金融风暴是从次级房贷导致房地产泡沫, 进而降低银行的流动资金并动摇整个银行体系. 目前则是忧虑美国疲软的经济前景.
* 由于股市在短时间内大幅下挫, 预期会比较快回升.
结论
如果週五美欧股市有回稳跡象, 再經过週末的沉澱消化, 马股有可能在來週止跌回升.
资料整理：伟大的Guest ^^
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"The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And you don’t want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about what you pay. But the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it. We always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don’t worry about sleeping at night. But it’s not because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially."
ReplyDelete~ Warren Buffett