《施瓦格》1
施瓦格是一位成功的作家。他炒过期货，不过其业绩并不怎么惊人。他以与华尔街成功炒家们的面谈为基础写成的《市场天才》却是一部炒股畅销书。在他的《新市场天才》一书中，综合数十位优秀炒家的面谈资料，他总结出四十一条“市场智慧”。
以下是我认为值得重视的要点。标题后的解释是我自己做的，请读过英文原版书的人谅解：
1、确定你对炒手生涯感兴趣。很多人嘴上说对做炒手感兴趣，实际上不是这么回事，其突出表现就是一遇到困难就放弃了。想在任何行业一夕致富是不现实的，除非你靠权力经商。
2、检查你买卖的动机 。你若只想找刺激，云霄飞车可能更合适，也更便宜。
3、你的交易方式必须和你的个性相符合。有些人买了股票就永不想卖，有些人持有股票超过三天就手痒，你要了解自己的个性。如果交易方法和个性不符，你不可能长久实施这一方法。
4、你必须有“胜算”。如果你的每次交易都没有超出50%的获胜概率，则无论你怎么努力，胜利都可能是短期且不确定的。你可能严守自己的规则，也有很好的风险控制方法，但你还是会亏光所有的本钱。坦率地问自己：“我确有把握吗？”如果你不能确定，通常说明这时你没有把握，你的胜算不超过50%。
5、找一个方法。无论是短期交易还是长期持有，选择买卖点都是有方法的。什么方法不重要，重要的是要有方法。这一方法必须适合你的个性同时有胜算。你可以用技术分析，用基础分析，用道氏理论，随便什么都可以，但你一定要有方法。必须指出，总结这一方法是痛苦而漫长的，否则这个世界的百万富翁将多得多。
6、好的交易方法应毫不费力。一个好的、适合你个性的交易方法应如行云流水般地毫不费力。到时就进，到时就出，一切清清楚楚。如果你对每一步骤都有怀疑，做起来就很勉强，这个方法大约不是很对。
7、风险控制。施瓦格说与他所面谈的所有优秀炒家都感到风险控制较所有其他的一切都更重要。因为没有什么方法是百分之百的，你必须避免被一场灾难所淘汰。
.
（未完，待续）
When we last shorted the market together, I made more losses than I had in one trade.
ReplyDeleteIt was the same type of lost just before I left for Langkawi as well.
The reason was:
I did not listen to myself.
I heard people say it will fall again, technical says falling. So I held on too long. Until the the pain was too strong, I had to let go.
Last short, I brought my stop higher as well, just to modify my method 'to suite' the market.
That was pure hoping. And pure gambling.
I wasn't myself.
I thought got a sifu behind me, agree that our short position was right. So I held on to my losing position.... for too long.
And I wasn't comfortable with such a big cut loss. Never had been comfortable with it.... that's why we talked about looking at closing price or touching price.
But the gap was too big to put in a meaningful big position to win again.
I kept my losses large. I didn't cut my losses short. I was wrong.
Rule no 1:
Never lose money. Protect you capital.
I will NEVER repeat this mistake again.
ReplyDelete还要注意的是：
ReplyDelete不要老是企图“ short 在最高位”！
I disagree. There are different strategy. Just follow the plan. And aim to trade well. As long as I trade acording to plan. That is trading well. Losing money is also ok as you are not influenced by emotions and trading according to plan.
ReplyDeleteAnd your plan, should of course include an immediate stop loss when you are wrong.
And also a prfit target as well. And also adding positon. And also risk management and also position sizing.
That's the whole set of complete plan.
If I follow the plan, the outcome will turn out as expected. I will know how much I will lose and also how much I win.
There will be no such thing as surprise win! And also no surprise loss! That's important.
If the plan is not good, all else is bad. Follow to plan 100%. Never do other than that.
也对！每个人的个性、要求皆不同，
ReplyDelete应该采用适合自己性格的策略才是，
希望你已经找到了适合自己的方法哦！
good luck .